Sunday, March 8, 2015

Framing the discussion about Jesus, Donald Rumsfeld and Kraftwerk

Donald Rumsfeld doesn't get a lot of play in the philosophical world but Slavoj Zizek doesn't borrow from just anybody. Rumsfeld has an amazing way of assessing a problem which I have discussed in other posts but I will make it more methodical in this post. Rumsfeld's four criteria are known knowns, known unknowns, unknown unknowns and unknown knowns. The last of his four criteria the "'unknown' 'known'" (UK) is critically important not just for organizational leadership but for clear thinking on a personal level.

The UK is an unconscious bias formed by a an 'unknown' piece of information that has been internalized uncritically. For example the Soviet Union has assessed the potential chances for a nuclear first strike by the United States continuously from Hiroshima to the present. There are undoubtedly algorithms which take into account large amounts of hard data: ("'known' 'knowns'") such as the number, condition, location, and readiness states of nuclear delivery systems (missiles, bombers, subs:the triad), newly developed and existing weapons that have been deployed to unknown locations("'known''unknowns'"), unknown weapons deployed to unknown locations ("'unknown' 'unknowns') and finally and most importantly the assumptions inherent to the decision making process which may or may not be correct: the deadly "'unknown' 'knowns'". We all unconsciously use these categories when it comes to music. I 'know' that Kraftwerk's soundtrack of "Tron" is one of my favorite modern albums, this is a 'known' 'known'. I know there is music I don't like aesthetically, this is also a 'known' 'known'. Furthermore I know that Kraftwerk has music I've never heard, this is a known unknown and the fact that there are anonymous artists making music I haven't heard is an unknown unknown.

That leaves the critical question: "what are my unknown knowns?". What criteria am I unconsciously relying on in the decision making process? In the case of aesthetic tastes like music the discussion ends here unless we are going to psychoanalyze my choices and their sources which is beyond the scope of this paper. We all unconsciously use these categories when it comes to music. I 'know' that Kraftwerk's soundtrack of "Tron" is one of my favorite modern albums, this is a 'known' 'known'. I know there is music I don't like aesthetically, this is also a 'known' 'known'. Furthermore I know that Kraftwerk has music I've never heard, this is a known unknown and the fact that there are anonymous artists making music I haven't heard is an unknown unknown.

That leaves the critical question: "what are my unknown knowns?". What criteria am I unconsciously relying on in the decision making process? In the case of aesthetic tastes like music the discussion ends here unless we are going to psychoanalyze my choices and their sources which is beyond the scope of this paper.

But if I'm in "Raid Over Moscow" trying to assess whether the U.S. is going to strike imminently, eventually or not at all the 'unknown' 'knowns' are the most important part of the equation. "The Americans" episode in which Reagan was shot illustrates a great example of 'unknown' 'knowns'. The CPCC decided that Alexander Haig had pulled a coup d'etat and wrested control of the American government from Reagan. Furthermore, the CPSU 'knew' that General Haig was planning to launch a first-strike against the USSR once he'd gained control of the nuclear football. How did the Central Committee reach this conclusion? (the conclusions themselves about General Haig are what Rumsfeld would call 'unknown' 'knowns'. Without realizing that their 'knowledge' of General Haig's plans to usurp power stemmed from the 'unknown' (unaccounted for bias) fact

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